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The Arithmetic

HOW HE ARRIVES AT A NUMBER · PUBLISHED IN FULL, SO THERE IS NO CONFUSION

Every figure on the board is an asking comp: a conservative reading of what sellers are asking, right now, for comparable items. It is not an appraisal, not a promise, and not a prediction of what an auction will finally fetch. Here is exactly how he arrives at it, every time, with no exceptions.

I. The same thing

He compares a lot against listings for the same item — matched on the listing's own words, not a loose category. A gold-filled watch is compared with gold-filled watches, not with the whole family that shares its name.

II. The same condition

Only the best-kept grades are considered at all — New, New without packaging, Like New, Pre-owned · Excellent, Certified refurbished — and the comparison set is held to those same grades. Worn, fair, for-parts, and the vague middle of "used" never enter the arithmetic, on either side.

III. Current asking prices

He reads up to fifty live fixed-price listings from US sellers. Asking prices are used because they are public and checkable this minute — anyone can look. He does not claim to know sold prices, and he does not guess at them.

IV. Throw out the nonsense

Anything asking more than two-and-a-half times the middle of the market is discarded as a hope, not a comp. Then the top and bottom 15% of what remains are discarded too. One dreamer with an absurd listing cannot move the number — and because the final figure is a rank in the list rather than an average, a high outlier mathematically cannot raise it.

V. Read from below the middle

The published figure is taken from the lower third of the surviving asks (the 35th percentile). If the number errs, it errs against us: the board will understate a bargain before it ever overstates one.

VI. Enough evidence, or silence

A figure appears on the public board only when at least fifteen like-for-like comparables support it. With less evidence than that, the Steward holds his tongue.


A worked example

50 asks read for the same watch, same grade
$14,900 — discarded (2.5× the middle: a hope)
top 15% — discarded · bottom 15% — discarded
remaining asks, ranked low to high
figure taken at the 35th rank from the bottom → $2,140 asking comp
bid stands at $1,290 → 40% under

"Under" always means under the asking comp defined above — never "under value," never "guaranteed savings." Auctions end where bidders take them. He advises; the bid is yours to place.


The Auction Floor · Terms · The Confidence · questions: service@bidsteward.com